POPULATION BY RACE
1940 TO 2020 IN COUNCIL DISTRICT 14, THE County and City of Los Angeles
Introduction
This study uses Decennial Census data to illustrate the racial makeup of the City of Los Angeles from 1940-2020 as compared to other geographic areas, such as Los Angeles County, California, and the USA, as well as City Council Districts. The results of this report allow for a comparison of relative rates of change for racial and ethnic groups and serves as a foundation of empirical data upon which policy discussions may be held. Coupled with studies on Zoning and Housing Stock in this issue, Population by Race trends provide a demographic dimension to local land use and housing policies.
Downzoning is the New Redlining
Redlining, the practice banks used to deny loans in predominantly Black and racially diverse neighborhoods morphed into other systems that stifle community investment and decrease housing access near jobs and good schools. The term redlining comes from maps with red areas where the FHA would not insure mortgages, which was common from the 1930s to the 1960s. Ultimately, redlining determined where and by whom land could be owned and developed, which unfairly conferred socioeconomic and environmental benefits on some while denying them to others.
In 1948, the U.S. Supreme Court deemed racially restrictive covenants unconstitutional, and, in 1968, the federal Fair Housing Act outlawed racial discrimination. By then, however, redlining had cemented the long-term marginalization of many communities. While some communities developed economic and social resilience, since the prohibition of redlining, downzoning, creates similar discriminatory results on socioeconomic status.
Downzoning is the practice of reducing an area’s dwelling unit capacity, whether by forbidding or limiting multiple-family dwellings, or through restrictive regulations, such as increased parking requirements, larger minimum lot sizes and building setbacks. In the 1970s and 80s, downzoning reduced LA’s planned population capacity from 10 million to 4 million. A mobilized association of affluent and politically connected homeowners succeeded in downzoning specific areas of the city by changing zoning classifications from multi-family to single-family and, in areas still open to multi-family development, by lowering density classifications, for example, from R3 to a new reduced density RD-1.5 zone. (Morrow, 2013)
The more restrictive zones drastically lowered the number of allowable units and, in many areas, even reduced the zoning capacity to below the density of units already built. While mostly affluent areas were downzoned, areas already suffering from overcrowding, less open space, struggling schools, and strained police precincts were upzoned to provide a disproportionate share of needed housing.
Just as with redlining, public policies were co-opted by those with greater influence. Ironically, many of the adverse effects of these policies are now borne by all residents, including the affluent. For example, the upzoning of residential areas far from employment and services produces traffic and pollution that affects everybody. While COVID-19 may temporarily result in less traffic currently through increased virtual commuting, even the pandemic has disproportionately affected lower income and communities of color, among other reasons, because essential workers are disproportionately people of color.
Methods
Decennial census data gathered by the United States Census Bureau for each decade from 1940 through 2020 were gathered from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) at the Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation, University of Minnesota. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcMap software was used to geographically locate and process spatial data within the geographic areas of interest: United States, California, Los Angeles County, City of Los Angeles, City Council Districts 1 through 15, and the 37 Community Plan Areas. The unit of measurement for the data is the Census Tract and all tracts with a centroid within the area of interest were selected to arrive at total population by race. Microsoft Excel was used to assemble the data and produce charts over time.
Observations
Los Angeles’ population has been steadily growing since the 1940’s with the fastest rates of growth from 1940 to mid 1960’s and in between mid 1980’s to mid 1990’s.
The White population made up most of the total population until the 1970’s when the White population began to decrease and other groups began to grow.
The group “Other,” present since the 1940’s, began growing in the 1970’s, surpassing the declining White population in the mid 2010’s.
The Hispanic population has been growing since the 1960’s, becoming the largest group in 2020 and surpassing the White population in the 2010’s.
The Black population began growing in the 1950’s, reaching a peak in the 1980’s and gradually decreasing since then, becoming the second smallest population in Los Angeles, smallest being the American Indian population.
The Asian and Pacific Islander population was recorded by the census beginning in the 1980’s, their population has been growing at a slow rate since the 1980’s.
The American Indian population was recorded by the census beginning in the 1980’s with a slow rate of growth, with the fastest rate between 2010-2020.
Areas for Further Research
Housing that is affordable to workers and the middle class has been eliminated through downzoning. Appeals for racial justice and systemic reform demand that exclusionary land use policies be re-examined. Downzoning picked up where redlining left off, but there is an alternative to either nibbling at the edges of reform or the status quo of picking winners and losers and doubling down that has existed for decades. Now there is a clear opportunity to codify fairness in housing and to stimulate an economic rebound through good construction jobs, access to affordable housing, and a better, more equitable Los Angeles.