HOMELESSNESS

AND SUITABLE SITE ANALYSIS FOR THE COUNTY AND CITY OF LOS ANGELES

Introduction

In 2018, the authors of this report built upon the SCANPH database of low income subsidized housing sites in Los Angeles County to include HHH sites and analyzed the results by City, Community Plan Area and City Council District. The results were published in the “Affordable Housing Inventory” report, which later became a longitudinal study, for which the second edition report was published in 2020. The 2020 edition of the Affordable Housing Inventory allowed the public to assess the current stock of various forms of subsidized low income housing, including permanent supportive housing, and significantly, the rate of change of these relative to demand.

In this context, attorneys for the LA Alliance for Human Rights and others approached the authors of this report to conduct a countywide Site Suitability Analysis for interim housing that addressed the prescient need for the identification of government parcels that were potentially underutilized, relatively level, outside of significant ecological areas and noxious land uses, such as airport noise contours, away from schools, of sufficient size to accommodate emergency interim housing facilities, and in sufficient quantity to provide for the roughly 46,000 unsheltered individuals in Los Angeles County. The results were published in the Homeless Of Street Sanctuary report in 2020.

Since publication of the report, various stakeholders have shown interest in the research methods and results of the Homeless Off Street Sanctuary initiative, in particular, the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analysis tools to evaluate potential site suitability in relation to a variety of factors at the countywide level. Employing GIS spatial analysis tools, specific portions of sites can be removed from the overall inventory of potentially suitable sites and the remaining sites can be ranked according to a composite score for a number of empirical, quantitative metrics. For example, site area, existing density of homeless in the vicinity, proximity to certain utilities, and market price of land. All of the aforementioned factors have been gathered from a variety of sources and operationalized in order to rank all potentially suitable sites as relatively higher or lower ranking. The results published in this report, and the database managed by the non-profit Center for Pacific Urbanism are intended to inform key stakeholders, decision makers, planners, interim housing service providers, and the general public as to the various land resources and research tools available to address some of the most pressing challenges today.

Methods

Building upon the Suitable Sites Inventory of the Homeless Off Street Sanctuary initiative, which utilized public databases for government parcels, public facilities, open space, parks, and City owned parking lots, certain parcels and portions of parcels with several characteristics were deemed unsuitable and removed from the inventory. Excluded areas were: significant ecological areas, airport noise contours, areas 600’ from a school, slopes greater than 15%, all building footprints, and sites less than 4,000 sq ft, which is the minimum area for a 20-person cohort satellite site served by a nearby hub. Further, sites greater than 8,000 were identified as potential hub sites, as these are able to accomodate at the least one cohort plus administrative and support services.

Further, based on discussions with emergency interim housing service providers, additional characteristics were used to rank greater to lesser suitability: site area and existing density of unsheltered individuals in the vicinity. In other words, larger sites are more desirable than smaller sites, and sites with a greater number of unsheltered individuals nearby are more desirable than the inverse. These variables are operationalized as percentiles in order to create a score for each variable. The sum of the two scores provides a subtotal upon which the totality of the sites are ranked.

Then, based on factors of unsuitability outlined by the Los Angeles City Administrative Officer in a Report Back on Evaluation of Site Feasibility and Identification of Funding for Potential Homeless Interventions in Council District 11, the inverse of the stated factors were utilized to identify and rank sites according to vehicular access, site contours, proximity to fire hydrants, sewer infrastructure, and market rate of land. Additional feedback from community members and local stakeholders further developed the criteria by removing sites within golf courses, parks, and beaches.

Each site is given an individual percentile score for each factor, based on its ranking, and the sum of these percentile scores is presented as the overall composite score. All sites in Los Angeles County are then ranked by their composite score, and grouped by suitability. To do this, the composite scores for all suitable sites were analyzed with Geospatial Information Systems using the Jenks natural breaks classification method as seen below:

Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) fIles for use in Google Earth were then exported for each category. These categories were labeled Low, Mid-Low, Mid, Mid-High, and High for the purposes of focusing on those sites with the “highest” suitability in Los Angeles County. An Excel spreadsheet was also prepared to organize and rank the sites by any further variable, or filter by geographic area within the County. Finally, PDF maps of site locations were prepared to visualize the size and concentration of suitable sites throughout Los Angeles County. 

Results

The final rankings of cities, council districts, and community plan areas by cumulative suitable site area within the highest ranking category reveal the locations which are most appropriate for placing interim off street sanctuary housing and services. At the municipal level, unincorporated Los Angeles County provides the greatest cumulative area of suitable sites at 1,044 acres, followed by the City of Los Angeles as 953 acres. Within the City of Los Angeles, Council District 14 provided the highest share of sites, with 80 total suitable sites at 473 cumulative acres, followed by Council District 15 with 14 sites at 173 cumulative acres. Similarly, the City of Los Angeles Community Plan Areas with the largest share of cumulative suitable site area is Central City North at 356 acres, followed by the Port of Los Angeles at 164 acres.

Conclusions and Areas for Further Research

The Center for Pacific Urbanism has inventoried potentially suitable sites for homeless off street sanctuary using GIS and other planning support tools, sorted by feasibility according to developing criteria. This report publishes the most recent suitable sites analysis for homeless sanctuary ranked by a composite score that takes into account size (site area), density of unsheltered individuals, road access, topographic slope, proximity to fire hydrants and sewer, market rate of land, ecology, and land use compatibility. 

The Center manages this comprehensive database of sites for the public good. From roughly 44,000 potential sites evaluated, this report identified 227 high ranking sites in the City of Los Angeles with a cumulative area of 952 acres. The top three ranking City Council Districts by area are CD 14 (Kevin de Leon), CD 15 (Joe Buscaino), and CD 11 (Mike Bonin).

There are 46,303 potentially suitable sites in government parcels and the like for Homeless Off Street Sanctuary in Los Angeles County. Ranked for suitability according to vehicular access, level slope, site area, density of nearby unsheltered individuals, cost related location decision factors, such as proximity to fire hydrant, sewer, market rate of land, and outside of ecologically sensitive or noxious areas, such as airport noise contours, and buffered from schools, parks, or beaches, there are 311 potentially suitable sites in the highest of five ranking classifications. Additional and individual review of sites is required to remove sites that are not truly feasible, where the quantitative data are mislabeled due to human error or otherwise. For example, there is a site that ranks high, recorded as residential land use, and classified as LAX zoning. However, upon individual review it is identified as a golf course. Ostensibly, the site could be utilized for interim housing, however, it is evident that when analyzing aggregate data at the Los Angeles County level, various sites will surface that are deemed less feasible than their quantitative data would express.

Further, in the aggregate, unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County represent the highest potential capacity of sanctuary for off street interim housing, with the City of Los Angeles as a close second. Inglewood, Carson, and Torrance represent the next highest opportunities, however their capacity is anywhere from one-fourth to one-sixth of the capacity of the City of Los Angeles.

Within the City of Los Angeles, there are 225 potential suitable sites in the highest ranking classification with an aggregate area of 953 acres and a capacity of at least 176,000 individuals. Preliminarily, the highest ranking by capacity is Council District 14, the median is Council District 9, and the lowest ranking by capacity is Council District 13. Council District 11 and 5 are third and fifth respectively. Among the top twenty individual highest ranking sites, most are located in Council District 11.

In terms of Community Plan Areas, the top five according to capacity in the highest ranking potential sites are Central City North, Port of Los Angeles, Sylmar, Northeast Los Angeles and Westwood.

Further individual vetting of sites is necessary in order to identify owners, operators, and opportunities for use as interim housing facilities.

Bibliography         

Rodman-Alvarez, et al (2021) 2020 Los Angeles County Subsidized Low Income Housing. Los Angeles, CA. Pacific Urbanism. Retrieved from https://www.pacificurbanism.com/research-publications/2020/9/23/subsidized-low-income-housing-inventory-and-homelessness-count

Rodman-Alvarez, et al (2021) Affordable Housing 2020 A Longitudinal Inventory Of Subsidized Low Income Housing In Los Angeles County. Los Angeles, CA. Pacific Urbanism. Retrieved from https://www.pacificurbanism.com/research-publications/2020/9/23/subsidized-low-income-housing-inventory-and-homelessness-count-s8lc6

Rodman-Alvarez, et al (2020) Homeless Off Street Sanctuary and Site Suitability Analysis. Los Angeles, CA. Pacific Urbanism. Retrieved from https://www.pacificurbanism.com/research-publications/2020/9/23/homeless-off-street-sanctuary-site-suitability-analysis