US Census Bureau Data Trends

1940 TO 2020 IN COUNCIL DISTRICT 11, THE CITY OF LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Introduction

The analysis of empirical data and its trends over time is integral to long range and comprehensive rational planning. Whereas, the typical 30-year window that is used among many planning efforts in the City of Los Angeles limits the ability of the general public and key decision-makers to observe critical inflection points in data trends, a broader 70 to 80 year view of US Census Bureau data provides greater opportunities for contextualizing the status quo as well as projected trends. This study fills a gap in academic and policy literature by reporting the results of a 80 year look at decennial Census data at various geographic scales that are relevant to decision-makers, planning professionals, and academics in the Los Angeles region. 

Academic and policy literature on the topic of housing in the Los Angeles region and the City of Los Angeles in particular has characterized the housing shortage as a crisis for at least the last 22 years. A review of best practices required to address the housing crisis finds that a paradigm shift among planning academics and professionals is necessary to more adequately frame the problem and formulate solutions. By contrast, recent housing reports by the City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning tend to provide short term views of progress, lauding seemingly large increases in the rate of requests for dwelling unit entitlements. However, when housing objectives, such as the 2029 Regional Housing Needs Assessment targets, are observed in perspective with the trends of the last 80 years, different and perhaps better approaches may be identified and implemented.

Literature Review

In the year 2000, a report prepared by the City of Los Angeles titled, “In Short Supply, Recommendations of the Los Angeles Housing Crisis Task Force,” identified low production as a key root cause of the housing shortage. In 2007, The American Planning Association published, “Zoning as a Barrier to Multifamily Housing Development,” in which Gerritt Knaap and others address exclusionary zoning as a root cause of suppressed housing supplies. Then in 2013, Greg Morrow published a seminal contribution to the body of literature surrounding root causes of the housing shortage in his doctoral dissertation at the University of California, Los Angeles titled, “The Homeowner Revolution: Democracy, Land Use and the Los Angeles Slow-Growth Movement, 1965-1992.” In this work, not only is the historical trajectory of exclusionary zoning in the City of Los Angeles documented, statistical analysis is applied to measure the correlation between a number of variables associated with exclusionary zoning. The 1970’s shift from comprehensive city planning to community planning and the creation of 35 community plans, rather than democratizing the planning process, handed decision making authority to those with greater influence and to the detriment of lower income communities and communities of color.  

In 2015, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office published, “California's High Housing Costs, Causes and Consequences,” which supports the thesis of Morrow (2013) that exclusionary zoning practices in affluent communities are at the root of the housing shortage not only by directly limiting the supply of housing in areas of high demand but also indirectly by contributing to affluent households being priced out of certain areas only to drive up housing prices in other, previously affordable neighborhoods. Rather than being simply an effect of natural market forces, these economic trends are the result of public policies, which begs the question whether the observed effects are intended or unintended consequences. In 2017, the Century Foundation published, “An Economic Fair Housing Act,” in which Richard Khalenberg draws a direct connection between the legacy of racially discriminatory housing policies and their contemporary, yet still legal, counterpart: economic exclusionary zoning policies. Now, in the context of updates to the Housing Element of the General Plan for the City of Los Angeles, its limits in directly addressing the past policies of exclusionary zoning, and the 2029 housing target of 456,643 net new units by 2029, this report builds upon the body of academic and policy literature by illustrating 80 year decennial US Census data trends in perspective with the aforementioned policy landscape and allowing data projections to be contrasted with the necessary targets.

Methods

Decennial census data gathered by the United States Census Bureau for each decade from 1940 through 2020 were gathered from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) at the Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation, University of Minnesota. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcMap software was used to geographically locate and process spatial data within the geographic areas of interest: United States, California, Los Angeles County, City of Los Angeles, City Council Districts 1 through 15, and the 37 Community Plan Areas. The unit of measurement for the data is the Census Tract and all tracts with a centroid within the area of interest were selected to arrive at total population, total dwelling units, and median household income (MHI). MHI was both adjusted for inflation to 2020 dollars and was weighted for the number of households in the area of interest. For the State of California, where MHI was not available, per capita income is reported and noted with an asterisk. The relative change from 1950 to 2020 is reported since MHI data for 1940 were unavailable; these rates of change are reported as a percentage.

Results

Observations

The rate of dwelling units growth is insufficient to reach the 2029 RHNA target without additional mechanisms to increase dwelling unit supply.

MHI adjusted for inflation has decreased slightly in the City of LA for the period under review. Unfortunately, in communities where MHI increases, rather than being an indicator of raising wages, this trend tends to indicate that lower income households are being replaced by households with higher incomes.

Bibliography

Housing Crisis Task Force (2000). In Short Supply, Recommendations of the Los Angeles Housing Crisis Task Force. Los Angeles, California.

Knaap, Gerrit, Meck, Stuart, Moore, Terry, and Robert Parker. (2007). “Zoning as a Barrier to Multifamily Housing Development.” Chicago, Illinois: American Planning Association.

Morrow, Greg. (2013). “The Homeowner Revolution: Democracy, Land Use and the Los Angeles Slow-Growth Movement, 1965-1992.” Los Angeles, California: UCLA.                 

Taylor, Mac. (2015). “California's High Housing Costs, Causes and Consequences.” Legislative Analyst's Office

Khalenberg, Richard D. (2017). “An Economic Fair Housing Act.” The Century Foundation.